Economy · Budget & tax · 31 October 2026
Foundation report details energy bill and budget measures
The Resolution Foundation has published a report analysing the measures announced in the Budget 2026. It forecasts that typical energy bills net of support will be higher in real terms this year than during the last price increase. The analysis notes that the poorest half of households will gain only slightly more from cost of living support than the richest half.
The Resolution Foundation has published a report analysing the measures announced in the Budget 2026. The analysis examines the impact of these fiscal decisions on household costs and public spending. It provides a detailed breakdown of the figures presented in the government's latest budget statement.
Typical energy bills net of support are forecast to be £1,750 this year (2026-27), compared with £1,685 during the last price increase (2022-23). The report states that the poorest half of households will gain an average of £158 from cost of living support this year and next. This is only £14 more than the £144 received by the richest half of households. Eligibility for support with energy bills is determined using 35-year old property valuations.
The improvement in the UK’s primary balance of £76 billion between 2023-24 and 2028-29 is attributed entirely to higher tax revenues of £107 billion over the same period. Departmental budgets received a £9 billion top up over the current spending review period, which is larger than the £4.4 billion cost of living support package. Real health spending is set to grow at a rate of 2.6 per cent, while the defence target stands at 3 per cent.
Funding for 13 ‘unprotected’ departments is expected to fall to a historic low by 2031-32. The report indicates this funding will reach 4.7 per cent of GDP in that year. Public sector net investment is set to fall below levels inherited from the previous government, dropping to 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2027-28 and 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2031-32, down from 2.5 per cent in 2023-24.
Written by StreetOwl from Resolution Foundation, a think tank’s own announcement. It was drafted by StreetOwl’s own model, every figure and quotation was checked by code against the announcement, and it was read and approved by Michael Rossi before it went up. It says what was announced, not what anyone should do about it.
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