Your October energy bill is going up: what to check before the cold

The price cap rises 3.6% this quarter and UK gas storage is running low. Here is what to check on your bill and with your supplier.

What changes on your bill from 1 October

From 1 October, the Ofgem price cap for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit rises to £1,723 a year. This represents a 3.6% increase from the £1,663 cap that applied between July and September. It is important to understand that this figure caps the unit rate and standing charge, not your total bill. If you use more energy than the typical household, your actual costs will be higher.

Ofgem attributes 47% of the new £1,723 cap to the wholesale cost of gas and electricity. This portion is roughly £810, up from 44% of the previous quarter’s cap. This shift reflects the changing market conditions for energy procurement. If you are currently on a fixed tariff, this cap change does not alter your current unit rates. However, it does change the benchmark price you would pay if you switched suppliers or if your fixed deal ends. Checking your contract end date is therefore a sensible first step before the winter weather sets in.

Why this winter carries extra supply risk

The UK gas system faces distinct pressures this winter that could affect your costs beyond the current cap. According to ENTSOG’s Winter Supply Outlook, while a normal winter can be met, a cold one would require cutting or going unmet with 7–12% of EU demand, depending on LNG supply. Ofgem identifies the UK as the most exposed gas system in Europe, with storage capacity for roughly 12 days of demand. Current stock levels are below that capacity, leaving less buffer than usual.

This vulnerability matters because 47% of your annual cap is driven by wholesale costs. Any sustained cold spell that tightens supply could push the next cap period higher, making this quarter’s £1,723 a floor rather than a ceiling for the winter ahead. The risk is not just about having enough gas, but how scarcity affects prices when demand spikes.

You should monitor your usage patterns and consider whether your home’s efficiency is helping you stay within the typical household assumption. If you notice higher consumption during cold spells, it may be worth reviewing insulation or heating settings. The key is to understand that while the current cap is fixed, the underlying market conditions remain volatile, and your actual bill could reflect these pressures if supply tightens.

What the complaints data says about your supplier

Ofgem data for Q2 2026 shows the whole market reported 936 complaints per 100,000 customer accounts. This is down 11% on a year earlier. However, individual suppliers vary widely. Outfox Energy reported 10 per 100,000, while British Gas reported 957. These figures are self-reported, so a low number does not make sure your specific issue will be resolved fairly.

A stronger signal of systemic problems is the regulator’s case list showing agreed compensation. Most of this goes to customers who had prepayment meters installed inappropriately. This suggests that even when general complaint rates look stable, serious issues can persist for specific groups.

You should check if your supplier appears in Ofgem’s list of cases involving agreed payments. If you had a prepayment meter installed without proper consent, you may be part of this group. The complaints rate alone does not reflect whether your individual case was handled correctly. Look at the specific outcomes in Ofgem’s records to understand your position. This approach gives you a clearer picture of your supplier’s conduct than the aggregate complaint figures alone.

The 'fee' that is not a fee

Scam databases describe this pattern as loan fee fraud, where an admin, insurance, or first repayment fee is charged for a payment that never arrives. The same tactic can appear in messages purporting to come from your energy supplier. They may ask for a processing or activation fee to release a rebate, credit, or discount you have been told you are owed. Genuine suppliers do not request upfront payment to unlock money they already owe you. This is a common tip to harvest bank details or secure immediate cash before disappearing.

Verify any such message through the phone number on the back of your bill or the supplier's official website. Do not call a number in the suspicious message or follow a link it contains. Legitimate correspondence will not require you to pay a fee to access your account or claim a credit. If you have already paid a fee in response to such a message, report it to Action Fraud and your bank immediately. Contact your energy supplier to confirm no such charge is legitimate. Acting quickly can help your bank flag the transaction and potentially reverse the payment.

This digest was drafted by StreetOwl’s own model from published figures and the sources listed, then read and approved by Michael Rossi on 26 October 2026 before it went up. It is general information, not financial advice: your circumstances are yours, and for a decision that matters, MoneyHelper (free, government-backed) or a regulated adviser is the place to go. General information, not personal financial advice. Figures checked on the dates shown.

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